Newsletters
Egan-Jones strives to provide educational and inspiring newsletters to its clients and potential followers on various topics in the Ratings, and Proxy world. Check out some of our latest pieces written by highly skilled Egan-Jones employees.
Risk Commentary
The End of (the Old) Globalization and its Implications
Economics 101 asserts that free trade yields more abundant goods and services. Specialization and trade enable each region to focus on their relative strengths and benefit from the economies of scale. Without trade, there would be no citrus fruits in the winter, steel in Paris, nor bananas year-round. For a variety of reasons, the free trade mantra is breaking down with global implications.
Productivity Revolution
The Industrial Revolution wrought massive changes in lifestyle, fortunes, and futures, forever changing society.We are on the verge of another revolution which is likely to similarly have massive global impact.
Changing Paradigms
The world is changing rapidly and the implications are massive.
Funding the Funds
Providing capital to funds can take a variety of different forms.
The Last Hurrah
On the ratings side of our firm we have a saying which is to check your politics, religion, and sporting views at the door.
The Sisyphus Syndrome; Forecasting Fallacies
Economic forecasting is a well-established practice among credit and financial analysts.
Sovereign Credit Quality: Key Drivers
Typically, issuers are subject to the vicissitudes of the economic environment. Hence a key question is what determines its strength or weakness, and perhaps more importantly, what predictions can be made regarding the future attractiveness.
False Prophets And False Prophesies
A good sense of the road ahead makes the driving much easier. This installment provides our best thoughts on the future environment.
Medium to Long-term Predictions
A good sense of the road ahead makes the driving much easier. This installment provides our best thoughts on the future environment.
Conestoga Conundrum, Assassin in our Midst
Automobiles are a major segment for most developed countries and are currently undergoing massive changes.
Massive Sea Change
In the past, to be a sea power one required a navy. Likewise, to be a land power, one required an army.
The Driver Of Returns – Installment II
This installment aims to suggest likely paths for all-important interest rates.
Disney: Losing the Magic
Over the past year, DIS has been more or less flat while the SPX has been up nearly 10%.
The Driver of Returns – Installment I
Beyond the cashflow or earnings performance of an individual firm, the next driver for nearly all investments are prevailing interest rates.
Accidents Waiting to Happen
Outcomes often appear random, but closer analysis indicates that many were predicable.
Emulating Mr. October
Reggie Jackson, the superstar slugger for the New York Yankees earned the sobriquet “Mr. October” for his uncanny ability to score runs when the team was desperate.
Dangerous Assumptions
One of the greatest causes of pain (and conversely, gain) are assumptions that prove to be false.
Technology Shifts
While it is easy to miss, our world is rapidly changing, thus presenting a new landscape of risks and opportunities. The focus of this installment is to address some of the major current and pending shifts and related implications.
The Widow(er) Maker
In finance, the definition of a widow(er) maker is a trade which appears to be highly attractive, but for various reasons, turns out to be a major loser.
Waiting for Godot
Samuel Beckett’s masterpiece was voted the "most significant English-language play of the 20th century” in a poll conducted by the British Royal National Theatre in 1998/99.
The Killing Fields
A massive shift has occurred in cultural norms, leaving in its wake befuddled corporate managers and shareholders.
The Sound and the Fury
It has been confirmed that the Wagner Group has reversed its drive toward Moscow and is returning to its bases.
Mercenary Mischief, A Deadly Game
As of early afternoon, in a reported audio message, Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, stated "To avoid bloodshed we are returning our convoys to bases."
Goldilocks and the Gorillas
The tale of Goldilocks is well-known; it basically involves the protagonist, Goldilocks, finding the ideal temperature for a satisfying meal.
Central Bankers' Dilemma
Central banks have always had massive power. Over the past 15 years, as they battled the 2008 Credit Crisis, they were endowed with even greater powers.
A Critical Hole in Understanding
Investment returns for both equities and fixed income are driven by prevailing interest rates (and corresponding valuation metrics such as P/E ratios and cap rates).
Mobility Mayhem
Our Risk Commentary aims to provide sophisticated institutional investors with thoughts, ideas, and themes that are likely to materially impact prospective portfolio performance.
China Challenges; Inflation Imbroglio; France being French
Countries, like companies, must adapt their behavior to address challenges. From the mid-1930’s to 1940’s, the U.S. supported the Republic of China to counter Japan's expansionary efforts.
The Power Of Swing Voters
The indictment of Donald Trump yesterday has fueled greater political polarization. However, institutional managers must focus their attention not on political poles but rather on swing voters and voter turnout, which will determine the result of the 2024 election.
Managing Manic Market Conditions; Most Likely Outcomes; Likely FED Funds Pivot; Japan Watch
The markets have been dealing with the fallout of the failure of several US banks. With US federal support, the markets have stabilized.
Emerging Massive Shifts
Just as machines has eased physical labor, we are seeing the rapid development of tools to ease some mental tasks. AI is at the forefront of that transition and is likely to have broad implications.
Serving Two Masters; A Changing World
The adage that it is impossible to serve two masters is readily becoming apparent. The FED cannot both curb inflation by raising rates and keep the banking system solvent.
Unintended Consequences: Tempering Interest Rate Increases
When a problem is too large to be solved, it simply will not be solved. To break inflation, most developed nations have increased interest rates but with inflated debt levels, several countries have little ability to absorb the increased rates.
Goldilocks Environment; The Inflation Witch; Ukraine Update; Super Cycle
Seth Klarman, chief executive of the Baupost Group, is one of the three investors who Warren Buffett would invest with if Berkshire Hathaway disbanded.
Predicting 12 of the last 2 recessions
Financial writers and economists are under constant pressure for attention. The more attention, the greater the demand for their views and in turn, greater compensation.
Inflection Points: Interest Rates, Recession, Ukraine, Europe and Japan
A key task for sophisticated risk managers is anticipating market developments and their impact on investments.
MMT & Canaries, PI & Russia, and ESG & Petroleum
A key task for sophisticated risk managers is anticipating market developments and their impact on investments.
2022 Progress, 2023 Risks, 2023 Possible Surprises
In this commentary, we review 2022 progress, major risks for 2023 and possible surprises.