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From our perspective, one of the most interesting outcomes is the maturation of the prediction markets, which were both more accurate and more timely than the traditional polling markets for determining likely outcomes from the election.

Just as the Reagan years are remembered as a major positive shift for investors, the current transition has the potential for similar, if not greater, gains.

From time to time, there are massive, seemingly unpredictable shifts that have far-reaching implications. Our view is that one of those moments is upon us.

Rarely have the political parties been as divided as they were in this past election, with the massive exchange of insults and worse.

Fallen angels bedevil (double entendre intended) portfolio and risk managers. The purpose of this installment is to help readers hopefully avoid these portfolio disasters.

Because of converging technological developments, for better or worse, labor will increasingly be replaced by capital, with massive implications.

Companies regularly try to build acceptance and a competitive moat to limit competition and ideally, increase margins.

Historically, when an entrepreneur had a great idea, they would design a product, manufacture it, and sell it to as broad an audience as possible.

Diversification is generally understood, but the math is often lost on the less informed.

Invested capital in private debt has grown from $1.0 trillion in 2020 to $1.4 trillion as of 2024 and is expected to grow to $2.5 trillion by 2028

Many sophisticated investors (Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller, etc.) are sounding the alarms, warning of a pending cataclysm.

At 77 years of age, one would think a luminary such as Mario Draghi would be enjoying the sun someplace on the Amalfi Coast or on the shores of Lake Como.

The benefits of being a market leader are multifold, including greater profitability, typically greater sales gains, and early opportunities for innovation.

A duty of a healthy society is to address existential threats. In our opinion, Western countries have made a major miscalculation with long-lasting consequences.

Traditional lenders prefer hard assets and hard cash. However, as society has progressed, the less tangible assets have in many cases become more valuable.

The late Jack Welch, the longtime widely acclaimed CEO of General Electric, claimed that he wanted GE to be first or second in each industry.

Imagine a time in the not-too-distant future when “machines” are more effective than most humans at performing most tasks.

PACE is a mechanism for financing energy efficiency and renewable energy improvements on private property.

The aim of this installment is to identify and analyze events that could prove disastrous for many professional investors.

As of a few quarters ago, many were rooting for a decline in longer-term Treasuries.

Litigation finance is different from the practice of lending to law firms whereby credit quality is derived from the operating income of the law firm.

For a variety of reasons, the free trade mantra is breaking down with global implications.

We are on the verge of another revolution which is likely to similarly have a massive global impact.

The world is changing rapidly and the implications are massive.

Providing capital to funds can take a variety of different forms.

On the ratings side of our firm we have a saying which is to check your politics, religion, and sporting views at the door.

Economic forecasting is a well-established practice among credit and financial analysts.

Typically, issuers are subject to the vicissitudes of the economic environment. Hence a key question is what determines its strength or weakness, and perhaps more importantly, what predictions can be made regarding the future attractiveness.

As a risk manager or manager of institutional capital, it is critical to have a firm grasp on major challenges and likely outcomes. Building and maintaining a portfolio based on false assumptions can be disastrous.

A good sense of the road ahead makes the driving much easier. This installment provides our best thoughts on the future environment.

Automobiles are a major segment for most developed countries and are currently undergoing massive changes.

In the past, to be a sea power one required a navy. Likewise, to be a land power, one required an army.

This installment aims to suggest likely paths for all-important interest rates.

Over the past year, DIS has been more or less flat while the SPX has been up nearly 10%.

Beyond the cashflow or earnings performance of an individual firm, the next driver for nearly all investments are prevailing interest rates.

Outcomes often appear random, but closer analysis indicates that many were predicable.

Reggie Jackson, the superstar slugger for the New York Yankees earned the sobriquet “Mr. October” for his uncanny ability to score runs when the team was desperate.

One of the greatest causes of pain (and conversely, gain) are assumptions that prove to be false.

While it is easy to miss, our world is rapidly changing, thus presenting a new landscape of risks and opportunities. The focus of this installment is to address some of the major current and pending shifts and related implications.

In finance, the definition of a widow(er) maker is a trade which appears to be highly attractive, but for various reasons, turns out to be a major loser.