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Economic forecasting is a well-established practice among credit and financial analysts.

Typically, issuers are subject to the vicissitudes of the economic environment. Hence a key question is what determines its strength or weakness, and perhaps more importantly, what predictions can be made regarding the future attractiveness.

A good sense of the road ahead makes the driving much easier. This installment provides our best thoughts on the future environment.

A good sense of the road ahead makes the driving much easier. This installment provides our best thoughts on the future environment.

Automobiles are a major segment for most developed countries and are currently undergoing massive changes.

In the past, to be a sea power one required a navy. Likewise, to be a land power, one required an army.

This installment aims to suggest likely paths for all-important interest rates.

Over the past year, DIS has been more or less flat while the SPX has been up nearly 10%.

Beyond the cashflow or earnings performance of an individual firm, the next driver for nearly all investments are prevailing interest rates.

Outcomes often appear random, but closer analysis indicates that many were predicable.

Reggie Jackson, the superstar slugger for the New York Yankees earned the sobriquet “Mr. October” for his uncanny ability to score runs when the team was desperate.

One of the greatest causes of pain (and conversely, gain) are assumptions that prove to be false.

While it is easy to miss, our world is rapidly changing, thus presenting a new landscape of risks and opportunities. The focus of this installment is to address some of the major current and pending shifts and related implications.

In finance, the definition of a widow(er) maker is a trade which appears to be highly attractive, but for various reasons, turns out to be a major loser.

Samuel Beckett’s masterpiece was voted the "most significant English-language play of the 20th century” in a poll conducted by the British Royal National Theatre in 1998/99.

A massive shift has occurred in cultural norms, leaving in its wake befuddled corporate managers and shareholders.

It has been confirmed that the Wagner Group has reversed its drive toward Moscow and is returning to its bases.

As of early afternoon, in a reported audio message, Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, stated "To avoid bloodshed we are returning our convoys to bases."

The tale of Goldilocks is well-known; it basically involves the protagonist, Goldilocks, finding the ideal temperature for a satisfying meal.

Central banks have always had massive power. Over the past 15 years, as they battled the 2008 Credit Crisis, they were endowed with even greater powers.

Investment returns for both equities and fixed income are driven by prevailing interest rates (and corresponding valuation metrics such as P/E ratios and cap rates).

Our Risk Commentary aims to provide sophisticated institutional investors with thoughts, ideas, and themes that are likely to materially impact prospective portfolio performance.

Countries, like companies, must adapt their behavior to address challenges. From the mid-1930’s to 1940’s, the U.S. supported the Republic of China to counter Japan's expansionary efforts.

The indictment of Donald Trump yesterday has fueled greater political polarization. However, institutional managers must focus their attention not on political poles but rather on swing voters and voter turnout, which will determine the result of the 2024 election. 

The markets have been dealing with the fallout of the failure of several US banks. With US federal support, the markets have stabilized.

Just as machines has eased physical labor, we are seeing the rapid development of tools to ease some mental tasks. AI is at the forefront of that transition and is likely to have broad implications.

The adage that it is impossible to serve two masters is readily becoming apparent. The FED cannot both curb inflation by raising rates and keep the banking system solvent.

When a problem is too large to be solved, it simply will not be solved. To break inflation, most developed nations have increased interest rates but with inflated debt levels, several countries have little ability to absorb the increased rates.

Seth Klarman, chief executive of the Baupost Group, is one of the three investors who Warren Buffett would invest with if Berkshire Hathaway disbanded.

Financial writers and economists are under constant pressure for attention. The more attention, the greater the demand for their views and in turn, greater compensation.

A key task for sophisticated risk managers is anticipating market developments and their impact on investments.

A key task for sophisticated risk managers is anticipating market developments and their impact on investments.

In this commentary, we review 2022 progress, major risks for 2023 and possible surprises.